Sir Keir Starmer will be unsurprisingly absent at his first by-election as Prime Minister signals just how much trouble the Labour Party is in, hiding away from the defeat of Labour candidate Karen Shore in Runcorn and Helsby. This is Labour’s 16th safest seat and one where Reform came second at the 2024 general election – a seat originally of Halton and the former constituencies of Weaver Vale, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Eddisbury, and City of Chester and when adjusted for boundary changes, represents loss of a a 59 point lead under Tony Blair. In the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority of more than 14,000 and 52.9% of the vote with Reform placed second at 18.1% of the vote (Tories with 16% of the vote).
The by-election on May 1 follows the arrest of Mike Amesbury, who was convicted earlier this year of assaulting a constituent in anger. In an equally angry outburst, Labour’s Reeves said: “The Tories aren’t doing anything. Esther McVey basically said the Tories should sit it out and let Reform win, and we’re seeing that on the ground. They’re not doing any work on the ground at all, it looks like they’re just gifting it to Reform.”
In March, polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft Polls suggested that Reform would win the by-election and prior to the election, the polls are showing Reform UK at 40% and Labour at 35% with the Tories (10%) only just beating Lib Dems (8%).
Reform UK is taking 20% of Conservative voters and 18% of Labour voters and generally getting a massive swing from Labour, which has lost 33 per cent of its previous vote share.
